This is the second in a series of article about the Individual Awards.
The Bullseye Award measures how close a runner's actual miles are to their projected miles at their annual goal pace.
As with many awards, I track how many miles above or below each runner is relative to their original goal pace. Members who are very close to that pace (i.e. near zero miles, whether above or below) qualify for this award.
Here' how it works: Each member has an annual goal. That goal is then divided by 52 to get an estimated pace (in miles per week or MPW) required to reach the goal. Given that number and the number of weeks run, one should be able to estimate how many miles a person would run if they ran exactly at that pace. I then compare the actual miles run to that estimated number to get a score (technically, I'm looking at the absolute value of the difference of the actual vs estimated miles).
For example, if a member has a goal of 1200 miles, the estimated MPW is 23.08. Therefore, a member might be expected to run 230.8 miles in ten weeks.
If a member actually ran 234.5 miles in ten weeks, their Bullseye Award score would be 3.7 miles. Alternatively, if that member instead ran 228.2 miles, their score would be 2.6 miles (a better score because they are closer).
This graph shows the top three Bullseye Award winners for Week 15 and how they got there:
In each case, you can see that these three members have had different paths to this point. trixienurse is actually the closest to goal pace (2.03 miles) and has remained fairly close to her goal pace. MizunoMan has come back from a deficit of over 40 miles. I'msoslow has actually fallen back some - from about 18 miles over to 2.61 miles below.
This award is updated each week and a person can be near the top group whether above or below projected miles. It is a fair indicator of how realistic a member's goal is, but becomes a better indicator over the course of the year.
If you'd ever like to see a chart of your own progress, drop me a line (PM or email) and I'll send you one.
(1)Assumes a full first week.
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